FUNDAMENTAL TACTICS BACKFIRE IN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SEMIS

D. Ray Morton, 1st May 2014.

Mourinho must sense that Chelsea went too defensive last night

Jose Mourinho and Chelsea's recent run of good results playing ultra defensive football had not won over many fans these past few weeks and there were some neutral smiles last night as their approach back-fired sending Atletico Madrid into their first Champions League final in its modern guise. On Tuesday, Bayern Munich and Pep Guardiola's obsessive possession football was completely dismantled by a ruthless Real Madrid side who ended up conquering the Germans by four goals without reply on their own turf at the Allianz.

Mourinho and Guardiola approached their respective ties as football fundamentalists turned up to eleven as the pressure of late season crunch time reared its asymmetrical head. Bayern continued with what has become a sterile possession game since they won their domestic league weeks ago. Whether it was a loss of focus on the players' part, a deep overall strategic issue or even Real Madrid's finishing efficiency, the Bavarians were left with a substantial amount of egg on their faces. Chelsea's attempt at dealing with Atletico was borderline repressive, the London side setting themselves up so defensively that the visitors must have felt flattered. The supposed underdogs had been made the belle of the ball.

Ronaldo, who tormented Bayern with a brace of goals, signifying to Bale that La Decima is on

Questions over team selection can be made for both matches. Guardiola reverted to playing Philip Lahm in his natural full-back position which allowed Thomas Muller to start behind Mario Mandzukic up front. €37m signing Mario Gotze and €40m Javi Martinez both failed to make the starting eleven. Chelsea's selection was so conservative it could have had a punchline attached to it. Cesar Azpilicueta had been chosen as some sort of additional full-back meant to destroy the play in wide areas by sitting in front of, or alongside, Ashley Cole and Branislav Ivanovic. Who knows?

Whereas Bayern had set themselves up to play and pass Real to death, Chelsea wanted to smother Atleti but handed them far too much of the iniative. Not even thinking about adapting to a brave approach in front of their own fans, Mourinho's side simply allowed Diego Simeone's "big-balled" dark horses to play without any pressure. A bizarre tactical angle, personally crushing as it adds to Mourinho's semi-final hoodoo that has haunted him since his days at Inter.

Simeone praised his players' mothers for giving them "big balls", maybe a pop at Chelsea's feeble defensive set-up

Real and Atletico advance to the Lisbon final, the two teams least overloaded with tactics in the semi-finals. Of the four teams, there wasn't a whole lot to separate them on paper but it appears as if the two teams that simply reacted to fundamentalist approaches triumphed comfortably. Though the defeats ended up being heavy, Bayern and Chelsea fans should probably hold some optimism for next season. Chelsea are one world class striker away from being a far more dangerous machine and Bayern can do a lot better once they resolve how to play "tiki-taka" without a Messi.

GUARDIOLA'S SELECTION BLUNDER AND ATLÉTICO'S RESILIENCE

GUARDIOLA'S SELECTION BLUNDER AND ATLÉTICO'S RESILIENCE

D. Ray Morton, 2nd April 2014.

The talk beforehand had been about how much of a mismatch this would be. Struggling Manchester United taking on the cream of Europe in the form of Pep Guardiola's mighty Champions League holders Bayern Munich. And mighty were the Bavarians' possession statistics no doubt but leaving Old Trafford with only a draw and having Bastian Schweinsteiger sent off was never part of the script.

The team selection immediately raised some eyebrows. Mario Mandžukić, a serious tormentor of defences, was left on the bench leaving Thomas Müller up front on his own with the trio of Franck Ribéry, Arjen Robben and Toni Kroos in behind. Müller didn't offer a focal point for the visitors' attacks and the United defensive pairing of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidić enjoyed a rather pleasant evening as a result.

As the first half wore on and Bayern racked up the passes, it suddenly dawned on those watching that maybe this side just wasn't going to be all that incisive on the night. It was described as "sterile possession" in some quarters, reminiscent of Pep's Barça when Lionel Messi wasn't available for selection.

United grew in confidence, defended with spirit and unrattled the Germans. They took the lead on 58 minutes when Vidić glanced home from a corner kick. The old vulnerability from set pieces remains as a Guardiola trademark, something which wasn't obvious in last season's treble winners lead by Jupp Hynckes.

Though Bayern did equalise on the night and set themselves up to take control of the tie in Munich, the other potential semi-finalists will be pleased that die Roten have had some weaknesses exposed. It was the eventually red-carded Schweinsteiger who got the goal, finishing sweetly from substitute Mandžukić's knock-down header. Surely the big Croat will start in the second leg. The result has hurt Guardiola it seems. His post-match press conference was uneasy as he cut a frustrated figure in front of the English media's bombardment of questions.

In the other clash last night, Atlético Madrid will be delighted to have secured a 1-1 draw at Camp Nou against Barcelona meaning the Catalans have failed to beat Diego Simeone's men in four attempts so far this season. Simeone will point out that the same goes for Atléti failing to beat los culés but Diego Ribas' sensational strike could make a key difference should the second leg be as cagey.

Barça still struggle against defensive-minded teams and though Atléti are well capable of playing attacking football, they change up their game plan when they face "Tata" Martino's side. Neymar managed to get an equaliser late on getting on the end of Andrés Iniesta's sumptuous through pass but surely the side from the capital will be happier with the result. Barça's woes continue today with the news that FIFA has banned them from signing any new players for the next two transfer windows.

Looking ahead to tonight's clashes, a game of huge interest should be Paris St. Germain vs. Chelsea in the French capital. José Mourinho gets reacquainted with Zlatan Ibrahimović in a potential classic between the ambitious Parisians versus the defensive and tactical toughness of the Londoners. Chelsea don't have Nemanja Matić available to them which is a big loss, so PSG will try to inflict as much damage as possible tonight in order to set up the away trip. It's a very hard one to call because as much quality as the French champions have, Mourinho's tactical nous in big European clashes is unmatched.

Mourinho and Zlatan, best of chums at Inter

In the other game, Real Madrid face an off-form Borussia Dortmund at the Santiago Bernabéu. Though the Germans triumphed in the same clash last season, injuries have ravaged their squad and the side from the Spanish capital should have enough to kill this one off in the first leg provided the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale have their shooting boots on.

EXPECT FAVOURITES TO PREVAIL IN TONIGHT'S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DOUBLE HEADER

EXPECT FAVOURITES TO PREVAIL IN TONIGHT'S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DOUBLE HEADER

D. Ray Morton, April 1st 2014.

The smart money this evening would be to back Barcelona and Bayern Munich as they face down Atlético Madrid and Manchester United respectively in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final ties. Barca play at home and will be thrilled at the sight of the visitors' star striker Diego Costa hobbling off at the weekend with a reported groin injury. As of now, there's only a 50/50 chance that he'll play and without him, Diego Simeone's team are not nearly as dangerous. The Argentine manager describes Costa as being as important to his side as Lionel Messi is to los culés. Indeed, Messi is back to his best. His form this calendar year has been astonishing after shaking off hamstring problems that interrupted his form throughout most of 2013. Gerardo Martino is likely to pair him alongside Neymar up front again with Cesc Fabregas operating in behind them. If anything, Barca's trademark 4-3-3 has been abandoned in recent weeks. Martino has preferred to stack the midfield in order to dominate possession, something which they hadn't focused on during the first half of the season.

Fabregas plays at the tip of the diamond in behind Messi and Neymar

Their shape now resembles something of a diamond 4-4-2. The high defensive line remains, which could be tested now that Victor Valdés is out for the season leaving José Manuel Pinto in goal, and Sergi Busquets continues his anchor man role. Xavi, Andrés Iniesta and Fabregas occupy the midfield positions leaving Messi and Neymar ahead to do as they please up front. Pedro and Alexis Sánchez have been left out for some of their recent big games though many fans of the Catalan club believe that one of the two ought to oust the young Brazilian from the starting line-up. Opinion is divided on how effective Neymar has been although the 22 year-old has been steadily racking up assists, winning penalties and chipping in a steady amount of goals this season.

Neymar's season stats from WhoScored.com

In the other fixture, David Moyes' Manchester United may very well be staring down the abyss. Defeat at home to Bayern Munich would end any realistic hope of advancing to the next round and would render the rest of United's season meaningless considering their poor league position well outside the top four. This is Moyes' last hope. He's likely to gamble on Ryan Giggs in the centre again, something which worked a charm against the considerably weaker Olympiakos but with Bastian Schweinsteiger, Toni Kroos (supposed United target) and Mario Götze all set to start for the visitors, it could be a tough night for the aging legs of the 40 year-old Welshman. Bayern's midfield trio work the ball beautifully and Philip Lahm can just as easily slot in should he be required there.

Whatever about Giggs, the key concern for United fans should be how deputy left-back Alexander
Büttner deals with the mazy dribbling skills of flying Dutchman, Arjen Robben. Robben has been fantastic under Pep Guardiola this season, building on last season's late burst of form and really improving as an all-round team player. He is still, of course, very one-footed and a good defence can make him look predictable cutting in from the right but United's defence has been very shaky this season, especially at home. Whether Büttner can cope will go a long way towards decided this first leg. I would predict Guardiola's side to approach the game more cautiously than the thrashing many people expect to be dealt out. The Spanish manager's record away from home against English opposition in the Champions League isn't actually all that formidable.

So some hope for United but what's important tonight is not so much the result but the performance. Pride needs to be restored at Old Trafford and picking up wins against the likes of Aston Villa and West Ham isn't enough to get people back on Moyes' side. With rumours that the club are willing to give the Scot a £200m war chest to spend in the summer, they have to send out some kind of a signal tonight. Realists don't expect to progress but they can at least exit this one particular tournament with their heads held relatively high provided don't perform footballing self-defecation.

THE GREAT MYTH OF GERMANY

THE GREAT MYTH OF GERMANY

D. Ray Morton, 27th March 2014.

Our poll here at Soccer Stash shows Germany as the majority favourites to win the upcoming World Cup in Brazil. The home side themselves are the bookmakers' favourites so the inclination that Germany might triumph next summer displays the diverse opinions of this site's readers. Whether they're "football hipsters" or pragmatists, Germany seem to be the team in this little pocket of the internet anyway.

This is puzzling to me to say the least. Now don't get me wrong, Germany have a fine side packed full of quality players but there's very little they've done that can convince me they stand a chance of winning the World Cup outright. The main thing to examine here is their record in recent tournaments. Naturally, Germany always qualify comfortably. Due to the UEFA seedings system in qualification groups, the Germans will rarely have to face top opposition before the main tournaments begin. For this World Cup, they qualified easily out of a weak group that only contained Sweden and the Republic of Ireland as possible banana skins.

Once qualified for their last major competition, Euro 2012, they were impressive in the group stage beating Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark by a single goal on each occasion to get through quite easily. They swept aside Greece 4-2 in the quarter-finals which set up their semi-final clash against Italy. Though many people had tipped the Germans to defeat the azzurri, they failed on the big occasion and got walloped 2-1 thanks to a magnificent performance from Mario Balotelli. This continued Germany's awful record against Italy in major competitions where they have never successfully defeated them. Not once. Indeed, Italy are Germany's bogey team.

Two years previously, at World Cup 2010, Germany failed at the penultimate hurdle again. As usual, they got through their group but did lose to Serbia in the process. They thumped a typically inadequate English team 4-1 in the second round and hammered the most disorganised of Argentinas in the quarters. But yet again, as soon as they faced sturdy opposition with a real game plan, they were found wanting. Eventual winners Spain passed them off the pitch to defeat them 1-0 in the semi-final. This was a repeat of the Euro 2008 final where, again, Spain were just too good for die Mannschaft.

Turning attention to the German domestic league, don't let last season's all-German Champions League final fool you. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund may have locked horns over Europe's elite club competition but the German game is nowhere near as advanced as the game in Spain, England and even Italy. Though the Bundesliga has totted up some impressive UEFA co-efficient points to make it Europe's third-ranked league behind the Premier League and La Liga, most of the teams competing in that league are very average.

Bayern Munich have already won the German league this season and it's not even April. Last season, they won the league so easily they decided to refund their season ticket holders. This season, Dortmund never challenged them. Bland teams like Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen pretended to but never even got a sniff in either. German clubs are balancing their books well which is admirable and average attendances are impressive but the league still lacks quality when compared to other European top flights.

There are at least four other leagues that are arguably superior than the Bundesliga. No other league matches the pace, intensity and investment of the English Premier League. Technically, Spanish football is miles ahead of anyone else. In terms of tactics and rigid defensive systems, Serie A is still highly competitive. Many professional players believe the likes of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo would never score as many goals as they do if they had to face defences like that week-in, week-out. I could imagine them both scoring significantly more in Germany especially if either played for Bayern. And then there's the French league which has Paris St. Germain and Monaco, two nouveau riche potential super-clubs.

The one thing German football has going for it this season is Bayern and no doubt, they're an awesome team. They have Manchester United in the Champions League next which, based on the Old Trafford club's form this season, should be a formality. Whether Bayern can complete back-to-back Champions League wins is anyone's guess but bookies are currently placing them as favourites. Dortmund are still in there too but not many are giving them a chance.

Switching focus back to the national team, which was the point of this article, there are some key problem areas in Germany's best starting XI. Most worrying is the decline in form of Mesut Özil which I have previously discussed. First-choice striker is another conundrum with Miroslav Klose showing his age and Mario Gómez still having not found top form after missing a lot of the season through injury. Also, Per Mertesacker is their first-choice centre back as Mats Hummels hasn't developed into the world beater everybody expected he'd be. Mertesacker is good positionally but surely his mobility will be tested by pacey strikers in the searing heat of Brazil next summer.

So, expect Germany to do well at the World Cup but don't expect them to win it. They have good players, depth and an attractive playing style but when it comes to the crunch matches against the top teams, their record is still questionable. Can they break they hex? We shall see.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUARTER-FINAL DRAW REACTION

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUARTER-FINAL DRAW REACTION

D. Ray Morton, 21st March 2014.

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

 

Not an ideal draw for the Catalan giants considering they have not been able to beat Madrid's second side in three attempts so far this season. Atletico managed to pip Barcelona to the Spanish Super Cup early on in the season by securing a 0-0 stalemate at home and getting a 1-1 draw at Camp Nou for an away goals victory. January's league meeting at the Calderon was a repeat of the earlier 0-0. The two sides square off in the first leg come April with the tie going to Camp Nou first. Barca have to get through rivals' clashes against Real Madrid and Espanyol between then and now, matches which will determine whether they can build on their impressive recent form which includes victory over Manchester City and the 7-0 league thumping of Osasuna. Diego Simeone's Atletico will be hoping to maintain their formidable intensity into the highly anticipated fixture and upset Messi, Iniesta et al. Prediction: Barca to scrape through by the skin of their teeth by exhausting Atletico with their possession game and taking the few chances they'll get.

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund

 

It's very unlikely that we'll see a repeat of last year's clash when Dortmund really upset the apple cart by eliminating Madrid and forcing the first ever all-German final against Bayern Munich. Dortmund have been ravaged by injuries this season and have done well to get this far. Their domestic form has been disappointing with the Bundesliga as good as over already. Real, after starting the season slowly, are now firing on all cylinders and are a terrifying prospect with the likes of Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo coming into top form. Prediction: Real to qualify comfortably, likely winning both legs.

Paris St. Germain vs Chelsea

 

This should be a fascinating clash seeing as the sides have never met before in Europe's top competition. Chelsea will bring their usual defensive resilience but one wonders whether they'll set up with their backs to the wall the way they would be expected to play against a Barca or a Bayern. PSG have a squad full of world class individual talents but don't yet play with a distinctive style that dominates teams tactically. They generally play a balanced game and rely on getting the ball to their undoubted star man, Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Very close to call. Prediction: Chelsea to edge it thanks to Mourinho's experience and craftiness. May require penalties!

Manchester United vs Bayern Munich

 

The draw no United fan wanted, Bayern Munich is surely too great a task for David Moyes' side to handle. Bayern have been incredible this season, stomping on everyone domestically and being mainly outstanding in Europe apart from one poor performance against Man City at the Allianz. That poor performance is all United can base a blueprint from. All they can do is hope for Bayern to have a bad first leg and then build on it in the second. Very few people see that happening, however, as FCB's strength in depth is second to none and Guardiola rarely gets things wrong on those big European nights. Prediction: Bayern to embarrass what is a poor United side, lucky to have made it thus far. 

LA DECIMA ON COURSE WITH CHELSEA LURKING IN THE SHADOWS

LA DECIMA ON COURSE WITH CHELSEA LURKING IN THE SHADOWS

D. Ray Morton, 19th March 2014.

La Decima has been a Real Madrid obsession since 2002 when Zinedine Zidane's inspired strike against Bayer Leverkusen secured the side's record-setting ninth victory of the European Cup/Champions League crown. Despite continuing to spend a fortunate on the world's top stars, "Old Big Ears" has eluded them season after season in the meantime. This year, however, they're as good a bet as anyone to win it outright considering the ease in which they steamrollered German side Schalke last night.

Cristiano Ronaldo slotted home a brace and Alvaro Morata added another to cancel out Tim Hoogland's deflected strike for a 3-1 win. Real didn't need to get out of second gear but at full flow, they seem like a team well capable of competing with the other top dogs in the competition such as Bayern Munich, Barcelona and perhaps Jose Mourinho's Chelsea or Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid (or maybe PSG? Very hip).

Chelsea had an easy night of their own at Stamford Bridge. Goals from Samuel Eto'o and Gary Cahill allowed them to cruise past Galatasaray and no-one will want to face them in the next stage. Real, Barca and Bayern each play with their own distinctive attacking style but the defensive resilience and never-say-die attitude of Mourinho's men could stand them in good stead as we reach the business end of the competition. Atletico are something of an unknown quantity as of yet but they will be very hard to beat.

Real, though more of a possession team this season under Carlo Ancelotti, are still devastating on the counter attack with the pace of Ronaldo and Gareth Bale. Karim Benzema's form has also returned to its best and with the likes of Luka Modric and Xabi Alonso in midfield, they are a side capable of barnstorming anyone if they get things right on a given evening. Barca are still a passing machine with a few long(er) ball tweaks and Bayern are something of an all-round juggernaut such are the tactical and positional options available to them. Atletico's main strength is their aggressive pressing which was what helped last season's inspired Borussia Dortmund to reach the final. Pressing, however, can get exhausting over the course of a long season.

Don't write off Chelsea though. Mourinho, and even Chelsea under other managers, have proven time and time again that they deliver their best European performances with their backs against the wall, looking to pick apart pretty, attacking teams by being forceful in the set-piece and defending like demons.

As all names go into the hat for the quarter-finals with no more seeding in the competition's structure, anything can happen and the real drama begins. The winnners of Borussia Dortmund vs. Zenit St. Petersburg and Manchester United vs. Olympiakos have yet to be decided but the two sides that get through there won't stand much of a chance lest there be a huge surprise in store for us.

MESSI'S CALCULATED DIG AT ROBBEN

MESSI'S CALCULATED DIG AT ROBBEN

D. Ray Morton, 19th March 2014.

As Bayern Munich announced that Arjen Robben has extended his contract at the club until June 2017, Barcelona's Lionel Messi unleashed some calculated criticism in the direction of the Dutch winger in regards to Spain's World Cup triumph against the Oranje four years ago.

Messi was quoted as saying: "You need the luck of the champions in order to win the World Cup, just like Spain had in South Africa."

The Argentine continued: "Spain were the best team at the 2010 World Cup, but they were fortunate that Robben missed two huge chances in the final."

An interesting line considering the few months ahead for the two superstars. Messi and Barcelona are still hurting from the 7-0 aggregate thrashing they suffered at the hands of Die Bayern last season and considering both sides' recent form in the competition, they could very well meet again in the remaining rounds.

Robben enjoyed a sensational run of form late last term scoring the 89th minute winner that saw Bayern lift the Champions League crown in a 2-1 win over domestic rivals Borussia Dortmund. Before that, however, Robben had been labelled as something of a big game "bottler" having lost out to Chelsea in the 2011/12 final after missing an extra time penalty which should have won it for the Bavarians.

Perhaps Messi is shrewdly aiming his words at Robben in order to revive those creeping doubts that plagued the Dutch man before his return to big game form. It should be interesting to see how this rivalry unfolds should we see Barcelona face Bayern again this season or even if Argentina face the Netherlands at the World Cup.

CALLS FOR CHANGE IN PENALTY/DISMISSAL RULES ARE IDIOTIC

CALLS FOR CHANGE IN PENALTY-DISMISSAL RULES ARE IDIOTIC

D. Ray Morton, 27th February 2014

As two English teams slumped to humbling defeats in the Champions' League last week, bizarre calls have been made for a change in the rules of the game when it comes to professional fouls which lead to red cards and penalties. Whether it was domestic bias (as it probably was considering we haven't heard any continental complaints) or something else that brought about this nonsense, it doesn't make any sense!

Martin Demichelis was rightly red carded for his awfully-timed challenge on Lionel Messi in the Manchester City vs. Barcelona fixture nine days ago and Arsenal's Wojtech Szesney, though one could be more sympathetic in his case, clearly brought down Bayern Munich's Arjen Robben the following night to earn himself a sending off of his own. Demichelis had to go. Messi had skinned him, was baring down on goal and looked guaranteed to score when his lumbering compatriot ruthlessly hacked him down in a very cynical move made to look as if he had been attempting a fair challenge.

Demichelis is no fool and has been round the block long enough to know he had no chance of winning the ball cleanly from Messi at that angle. The foul may have started ever so slightly outside the box but within the letter of the law, it is entirely up to the referee's discretion whether to award a free-kick or a penalty. In this case, however, one would suspect the speed of the action lead to the penalty decision. Messi slotted home the spot-kick and some English viewers blabbed about how the game was "ruined as a contest".

What a stupid notion and what ignorance of the game as a whole. When a team concedes a penalty and has a player sent off, yes they are at a disadvantage but that is the point! You get punished for cynicism or clumsiness as the last line of defence and that's how football should be. Any change in that law would bring about an unworkable system where oafish defenders are somehow rewarded for their own shortcomings. To say that the game gets ruined as a spectacle is to suggest that getting a player sent off is the worst thing in the world. This is not five-a-side where losing a player means losing 20% of your team. A good side can recover from having a man sent off as famously demonstrated by Barcelona against Chelsea in 2009 when Andres Iniesta's last minute heroics trumped the Londoners in the dying minutes after Eric Abidal had been, incorrectly at the time, sent off beforehand. With so many close calls in a match, how can a sending off ruin a contest more than say, a goal being ruled offside when it was not?

As mentioned, one could sympathise with Szesney to some extent, as his foul was more about getting the timing wrong instead of ruthlessly chopping down an opponent. That said, is there a better way to deal with the offence? It was a clear goalscoring opportunity and the officials are there to punish wrongful actions, not judge whether the offender's intentions were honest or not. Referees are already like incapable teachers with too many kids in their class so let's not make it any harder or more confusing for them. Face it City and Arsenal fans, this is a classic case of sour grapes.