THE GREAT MYTH OF GERMANY
D. Ray Morton, 27th March 2014.
Our poll here at Soccer Stash shows Germany as the majority favourites to win the upcoming World Cup in Brazil. The home side themselves are the bookmakers' favourites so the inclination that Germany might triumph next summer displays the diverse opinions of this site's readers. Whether they're "football hipsters" or pragmatists, Germany seem to be the team in this little pocket of the internet anyway.
This is puzzling to me to say the least. Now don't get me wrong, Germany have a fine side packed full of quality players but there's very little they've done that can convince me they stand a chance of winning the World Cup outright. The main thing to examine here is their record in recent tournaments. Naturally, Germany always qualify comfortably. Due to the UEFA seedings system in qualification groups, the Germans will rarely have to face top opposition before the main tournaments begin. For this World Cup, they qualified easily out of a weak group that only contained Sweden and the Republic of Ireland as possible banana skins.
Once qualified for their last major competition, Euro 2012, they were impressive in the group stage beating Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark by a single goal on each occasion to get through quite easily. They swept aside Greece 4-2 in the quarter-finals which set up their semi-final clash against Italy. Though many people had tipped the Germans to defeat the azzurri, they failed on the big occasion and got walloped 2-1 thanks to a magnificent performance from Mario Balotelli. This continued Germany's awful record against Italy in major competitions where they have never successfully defeated them. Not once. Indeed, Italy are Germany's bogey team.
Two years previously, at World Cup 2010, Germany failed at the penultimate hurdle again. As usual, they got through their group but did lose to Serbia in the process. They thumped a typically inadequate English team 4-1 in the second round and hammered the most disorganised of Argentinas in the quarters. But yet again, as soon as they faced sturdy opposition with a real game plan, they were found wanting. Eventual winners Spain passed them off the pitch to defeat them 1-0 in the semi-final. This was a repeat of the Euro 2008 final where, again, Spain were just too good for die Mannschaft.
Turning attention to the German domestic league, don't let last season's all-German Champions League final fool you. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund may have locked horns over Europe's elite club competition but the German game is nowhere near as advanced as the game in Spain, England and even Italy. Though the Bundesliga has totted up some impressive UEFA co-efficient points to make it Europe's third-ranked league behind the Premier League and La Liga, most of the teams competing in that league are very average.
Bayern Munich have already won the German league this season and it's not even April. Last season, they won the league so easily they decided to refund their season ticket holders. This season, Dortmund never challenged them. Bland teams like Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen pretended to but never even got a sniff in either. German clubs are balancing their books well which is admirable and average attendances are impressive but the league still lacks quality when compared to other European top flights.
There are at least four other leagues that are arguably superior than the Bundesliga. No other league matches the pace, intensity and investment of the English Premier League. Technically, Spanish football is miles ahead of anyone else. In terms of tactics and rigid defensive systems, Serie A is still highly competitive. Many professional players believe the likes of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo would never score as many goals as they do if they had to face defences like that week-in, week-out. I could imagine them both scoring significantly more in Germany especially if either played for Bayern. And then there's the French league which has Paris St. Germain and Monaco, two nouveau riche potential super-clubs.
The one thing German football has going for it this season is Bayern and no doubt, they're an awesome team. They have Manchester United in the Champions League next which, based on the Old Trafford club's form this season, should be a formality. Whether Bayern can complete back-to-back Champions League wins is anyone's guess but bookies are currently placing them as favourites. Dortmund are still in there too but not many are giving them a chance.
Switching focus back to the national team, which was the point of this article, there are some key problem areas in Germany's best starting XI. Most worrying is the decline in form of Mesut Özil which I have previously discussed. First-choice striker is another conundrum with Miroslav Klose showing his age and Mario Gómez still having not found top form after missing a lot of the season through injury. Also, Per Mertesacker is their first-choice centre back as Mats Hummels hasn't developed into the world beater everybody expected he'd be. Mertesacker is good positionally but surely his mobility will be tested by pacey strikers in the searing heat of Brazil next summer.
So, expect Germany to do well at the World Cup but don't expect them to win it. They have good players, depth and an attractive playing style but when it comes to the crunch matches against the top teams, their record is still questionable. Can they break they hex? We shall see.
