FUNDAMENTAL TACTICS BACKFIRE IN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SEMIS

D. Ray Morton, 1st May 2014.

Mourinho must sense that Chelsea went too defensive last night

Jose Mourinho and Chelsea's recent run of good results playing ultra defensive football had not won over many fans these past few weeks and there were some neutral smiles last night as their approach back-fired sending Atletico Madrid into their first Champions League final in its modern guise. On Tuesday, Bayern Munich and Pep Guardiola's obsessive possession football was completely dismantled by a ruthless Real Madrid side who ended up conquering the Germans by four goals without reply on their own turf at the Allianz.

Mourinho and Guardiola approached their respective ties as football fundamentalists turned up to eleven as the pressure of late season crunch time reared its asymmetrical head. Bayern continued with what has become a sterile possession game since they won their domestic league weeks ago. Whether it was a loss of focus on the players' part, a deep overall strategic issue or even Real Madrid's finishing efficiency, the Bavarians were left with a substantial amount of egg on their faces. Chelsea's attempt at dealing with Atletico was borderline repressive, the London side setting themselves up so defensively that the visitors must have felt flattered. The supposed underdogs had been made the belle of the ball.

Ronaldo, who tormented Bayern with a brace of goals, signifying to Bale that La Decima is on

Questions over team selection can be made for both matches. Guardiola reverted to playing Philip Lahm in his natural full-back position which allowed Thomas Muller to start behind Mario Mandzukic up front. €37m signing Mario Gotze and €40m Javi Martinez both failed to make the starting eleven. Chelsea's selection was so conservative it could have had a punchline attached to it. Cesar Azpilicueta had been chosen as some sort of additional full-back meant to destroy the play in wide areas by sitting in front of, or alongside, Ashley Cole and Branislav Ivanovic. Who knows?

Whereas Bayern had set themselves up to play and pass Real to death, Chelsea wanted to smother Atleti but handed them far too much of the iniative. Not even thinking about adapting to a brave approach in front of their own fans, Mourinho's side simply allowed Diego Simeone's "big-balled" dark horses to play without any pressure. A bizarre tactical angle, personally crushing as it adds to Mourinho's semi-final hoodoo that has haunted him since his days at Inter.

Simeone praised his players' mothers for giving them "big balls", maybe a pop at Chelsea's feeble defensive set-up

Real and Atletico advance to the Lisbon final, the two teams least overloaded with tactics in the semi-finals. Of the four teams, there wasn't a whole lot to separate them on paper but it appears as if the two teams that simply reacted to fundamentalist approaches triumphed comfortably. Though the defeats ended up being heavy, Bayern and Chelsea fans should probably hold some optimism for next season. Chelsea are one world class striker away from being a far more dangerous machine and Bayern can do a lot better once they resolve how to play "tiki-taka" without a Messi.

BIG MONEY COULD ULTIMATELY CRUSH ATLÉTICO'S DREAMS

BIG MONEY COULD ULTIMATELY CRUSH ATLÉTICO'S DREAMS

D. Ray Morton, 10th March 2014.

After five games, four draws and finally a win, Atlético Madrid have toppled Barcelona on Europe's grandest stage with last night's 1-0 second leg win at the Vicente Calderón. Manager Diego Simeone has performed miracles with limited resources and a domestic duopoly to contend with. They now join three elite European superpowers in the semi-finals: their local rivals and nine-time winners Real Madrid, the holders Bayern Munich and 2012's winners Chelsea. Atlético are set to battle amongst the giants no doubt.

They shouldn't fear any of the three sides on strictly footballing terms, that is but for Chelsea partly for what I outlined here yesterday, though they will take the rest of the competition in their stride knowing that getting to this stage is an adventure far beyond what they could have imagined at the start of the season. There is, however, the grim reality of what their refreshing football makes us forget, and that is money.

Should Atlético be put with Chelsea in tomorrow's draw, they will be hit with an immediate disadvantage. On-loan Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will not be selected should the rojiblancos have to face his parent club. Not that they are contractually forbidden, but because they, according to club president Enrique Cerezo, would have to pay the London club an additional €8m for his services if he were to feature in that specific fixture. Such a loss could be catastrophic considering Courtois' brilliance this season which has left many rating him as one of the finest keepers on the planet.

Courtois' brilliance would be sorely missed were they to face Chelsea

Atlético are cash-strapped. The club are thought to be several hundred million Euro in debt and cannot afford to shell out any payments beyond their extremely limited financial structure. They are not in the position to reject lucrative transfer offers, as evidenced by Radamel Falcao's big money departure to Monaco last summer. This team and its successes so far have not been bought. They have been willed on by Simeone's sheer motivational drive, man management skills and sound tactical knowledge. Not many managers could have set up a side to stifle Lionel Messi in the manner he was last night.

Indeed, Diego Simeone could be one of the most sought after managers in the world come next summer. What he has managed on such a limited budget is simply remarkable and although the Argentine has stated in the past that he would only like to manage teams he has played for, big money offers would surely roll in. There would be temptation in taking over a club with massive resources, a team capable of challenging in Europe season after season without having to deal with loan sharks.

 Simeone's impressive managerial skills will be in high demand next summer

It's not only Simeone who could leave as well. Midfielder Koke has come on in leaps and bounds this season and has attracted the interest of several big clubs capable of vastly increasing his salary. Manchester United are one name that have been repeatedly mentioned. Striker and talisman Diego Costa will almost certainly end up in the Premier League after the World Cup. The core of the team could be completely dismantled with Atlético trying to chip away at their massive debts by having to sell to any prospective buyers with big wallets.

It's sad in a way that Atlético and Simeone aren't in a position to really grow together and see this project blossom the way it would for a more fiscally secure team. Their following in Spain is formidable, probably the country's third most supported club, especially with the demise of Valencia. That was the same Valencia that made it to two Champions League finals before having to sell their stars as the debts racked up. Atlético's coffers are similarly empty. Enjoy this year's vintage because the likelihood is, unfortunately, that it won't be repeated.

EXPECT FAVOURITES TO PREVAIL IN TONIGHT'S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DOUBLE HEADER

EXPECT FAVOURITES TO PREVAIL IN TONIGHT'S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DOUBLE HEADER

D. Ray Morton, April 1st 2014.

The smart money this evening would be to back Barcelona and Bayern Munich as they face down Atlético Madrid and Manchester United respectively in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final ties. Barca play at home and will be thrilled at the sight of the visitors' star striker Diego Costa hobbling off at the weekend with a reported groin injury. As of now, there's only a 50/50 chance that he'll play and without him, Diego Simeone's team are not nearly as dangerous. The Argentine manager describes Costa as being as important to his side as Lionel Messi is to los culés. Indeed, Messi is back to his best. His form this calendar year has been astonishing after shaking off hamstring problems that interrupted his form throughout most of 2013. Gerardo Martino is likely to pair him alongside Neymar up front again with Cesc Fabregas operating in behind them. If anything, Barca's trademark 4-3-3 has been abandoned in recent weeks. Martino has preferred to stack the midfield in order to dominate possession, something which they hadn't focused on during the first half of the season.

Fabregas plays at the tip of the diamond in behind Messi and Neymar

Their shape now resembles something of a diamond 4-4-2. The high defensive line remains, which could be tested now that Victor Valdés is out for the season leaving José Manuel Pinto in goal, and Sergi Busquets continues his anchor man role. Xavi, Andrés Iniesta and Fabregas occupy the midfield positions leaving Messi and Neymar ahead to do as they please up front. Pedro and Alexis Sánchez have been left out for some of their recent big games though many fans of the Catalan club believe that one of the two ought to oust the young Brazilian from the starting line-up. Opinion is divided on how effective Neymar has been although the 22 year-old has been steadily racking up assists, winning penalties and chipping in a steady amount of goals this season.

Neymar's season stats from WhoScored.com

In the other fixture, David Moyes' Manchester United may very well be staring down the abyss. Defeat at home to Bayern Munich would end any realistic hope of advancing to the next round and would render the rest of United's season meaningless considering their poor league position well outside the top four. This is Moyes' last hope. He's likely to gamble on Ryan Giggs in the centre again, something which worked a charm against the considerably weaker Olympiakos but with Bastian Schweinsteiger, Toni Kroos (supposed United target) and Mario Götze all set to start for the visitors, it could be a tough night for the aging legs of the 40 year-old Welshman. Bayern's midfield trio work the ball beautifully and Philip Lahm can just as easily slot in should he be required there.

Whatever about Giggs, the key concern for United fans should be how deputy left-back Alexander
Büttner deals with the mazy dribbling skills of flying Dutchman, Arjen Robben. Robben has been fantastic under Pep Guardiola this season, building on last season's late burst of form and really improving as an all-round team player. He is still, of course, very one-footed and a good defence can make him look predictable cutting in from the right but United's defence has been very shaky this season, especially at home. Whether Büttner can cope will go a long way towards decided this first leg. I would predict Guardiola's side to approach the game more cautiously than the thrashing many people expect to be dealt out. The Spanish manager's record away from home against English opposition in the Champions League isn't actually all that formidable.

So some hope for United but what's important tonight is not so much the result but the performance. Pride needs to be restored at Old Trafford and picking up wins against the likes of Aston Villa and West Ham isn't enough to get people back on Moyes' side. With rumours that the club are willing to give the Scot a £200m war chest to spend in the summer, they have to send out some kind of a signal tonight. Realists don't expect to progress but they can at least exit this one particular tournament with their heads held relatively high provided don't perform footballing self-defecation.

REAL MADRID LOSE AT SEVILLA WHILST BARCELONA LOSE VALDÉS

REAL MADRID LOSE AT SEVILLA WHILST BARCELONA LOSE VALDÉS

D. Ray Morton, 27th March 2014.

Last night marked a crucial turning point in the race for the Liga BBVA crown with title hopefuls Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid and Barcelona all in action. Atléti and Barça played at home against Granada and Celta Vigo respectively and both secured three points each as Real fell to a 2-1 away defeat to Sevilla. The Sevilla fixture always looked like it might be a spanner in the works for Carlo Ancelotti's men. Despite taking an early lead through Cristiano Ronaldo, Sevilla got the visitors on the back foot and managed two goals from Carlos Bacca to send the side from the capital packing. Three crucial points dropped and confusion all-round.

Atlético struggled against Granada but managed to win ugly thanks to another goal from their profilic Brazilian-born striker Diego Costa. Barcelona picked up a routine win against Celta Vigo at Camp Nou but their 3-0 rout had the gloss taken off it when goalkeeper Victor Valdés was stretchered off in the first half with a serious knee injury brought about whilst saving a free kick. It is thought to be a cruciate knee ligament injury which will keep him out for at least six months meaning that last night, as he will leave the club in the summer, was his last ever match for Barça. Set to miss the World Cup also, it has been the cruelest of injuries for a keeper that has found his very best form this season. José Manuel Pinto came on to deputise for Valdés but one wonders whether the 38 year-old back-up goalie will be good enough to get los culés past tougher challenges as the season reaches its climax. A brace from Neymar and another from Lionel Messi ensured the Catalans at least got the three points to keep their title charge going.

Each of the three challenging teams have their concerns. Atléti managed to win last night but the struggle in which they dispatched Granada might indicate that Diego Simeone's side are burning out. Barça lost Valdés which could be a huge psychological blow and Real simply bottled it against Sevilla in a game that prospective league champions ought to win.

Atléti have a one-point lead over Barça and have to play them at Camp Nou on the final day of match fixtures. Should both teams finish on level points, it will come down to head-to-head record. When both sides faced each other in Madrid in November, it finished 0-0. Real have left themselves in a bad situation in that they now have to finish a clear point ahead of the other two in order to clinch the title. Atléti and Barça have superior head-to-head records against Real.

Bookmakers are giving Barcelona the edge and still give Real Madrid a better chance than Atlético despite their loss last night. The clubs' run-in fixtures are as follows:

Atlético Madrid: vs. Atheltic Bilbao (away), Villarreal (home), Getafe (away), Elche (home), Valencia (away), Levante (away), Malaga (home), Barcelona (away).

Barcelona: vs. Espanyol (away), Real Betis (home), Granada (away), Athletic Bilbao (home), Villarreal (away), Getafe (home), Elche (away), Atlético Madrid (home).

Real Madrid: vs. Rayo Vallecano (home), Real Sociedad (away), Almeria (home), Valladolid (away), Osasuna (home), Valencia (home), Celta Vigo (away), Espanyol (home).

Barcelona's run-in looks like the easiest of the three but the way this title race has jumped back and forth, there can be no guarantees. Valdés' injury is a huge loss but Real Madrid may already have blown it with their most recent brace of defeats. Let's not count out Atlético. Despite showing signs of fatigue, they still lead the table and very much have everything in their own hands. It's as simple as win every game and you've won the league.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUARTER-FINAL DRAW REACTION

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUARTER-FINAL DRAW REACTION

D. Ray Morton, 21st March 2014.

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

 

Not an ideal draw for the Catalan giants considering they have not been able to beat Madrid's second side in three attempts so far this season. Atletico managed to pip Barcelona to the Spanish Super Cup early on in the season by securing a 0-0 stalemate at home and getting a 1-1 draw at Camp Nou for an away goals victory. January's league meeting at the Calderon was a repeat of the earlier 0-0. The two sides square off in the first leg come April with the tie going to Camp Nou first. Barca have to get through rivals' clashes against Real Madrid and Espanyol between then and now, matches which will determine whether they can build on their impressive recent form which includes victory over Manchester City and the 7-0 league thumping of Osasuna. Diego Simeone's Atletico will be hoping to maintain their formidable intensity into the highly anticipated fixture and upset Messi, Iniesta et al. Prediction: Barca to scrape through by the skin of their teeth by exhausting Atletico with their possession game and taking the few chances they'll get.

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund

 

It's very unlikely that we'll see a repeat of last year's clash when Dortmund really upset the apple cart by eliminating Madrid and forcing the first ever all-German final against Bayern Munich. Dortmund have been ravaged by injuries this season and have done well to get this far. Their domestic form has been disappointing with the Bundesliga as good as over already. Real, after starting the season slowly, are now firing on all cylinders and are a terrifying prospect with the likes of Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo coming into top form. Prediction: Real to qualify comfortably, likely winning both legs.

Paris St. Germain vs Chelsea

 

This should be a fascinating clash seeing as the sides have never met before in Europe's top competition. Chelsea will bring their usual defensive resilience but one wonders whether they'll set up with their backs to the wall the way they would be expected to play against a Barca or a Bayern. PSG have a squad full of world class individual talents but don't yet play with a distinctive style that dominates teams tactically. They generally play a balanced game and rely on getting the ball to their undoubted star man, Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Very close to call. Prediction: Chelsea to edge it thanks to Mourinho's experience and craftiness. May require penalties!

Manchester United vs Bayern Munich

 

The draw no United fan wanted, Bayern Munich is surely too great a task for David Moyes' side to handle. Bayern have been incredible this season, stomping on everyone domestically and being mainly outstanding in Europe apart from one poor performance against Man City at the Allianz. That poor performance is all United can base a blueprint from. All they can do is hope for Bayern to have a bad first leg and then build on it in the second. Very few people see that happening, however, as FCB's strength in depth is second to none and Guardiola rarely gets things wrong on those big European nights. Prediction: Bayern to embarrass what is a poor United side, lucky to have made it thus far. 

LA DECIMA ON COURSE WITH CHELSEA LURKING IN THE SHADOWS

LA DECIMA ON COURSE WITH CHELSEA LURKING IN THE SHADOWS

D. Ray Morton, 19th March 2014.

La Decima has been a Real Madrid obsession since 2002 when Zinedine Zidane's inspired strike against Bayer Leverkusen secured the side's record-setting ninth victory of the European Cup/Champions League crown. Despite continuing to spend a fortunate on the world's top stars, "Old Big Ears" has eluded them season after season in the meantime. This year, however, they're as good a bet as anyone to win it outright considering the ease in which they steamrollered German side Schalke last night.

Cristiano Ronaldo slotted home a brace and Alvaro Morata added another to cancel out Tim Hoogland's deflected strike for a 3-1 win. Real didn't need to get out of second gear but at full flow, they seem like a team well capable of competing with the other top dogs in the competition such as Bayern Munich, Barcelona and perhaps Jose Mourinho's Chelsea or Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid (or maybe PSG? Very hip).

Chelsea had an easy night of their own at Stamford Bridge. Goals from Samuel Eto'o and Gary Cahill allowed them to cruise past Galatasaray and no-one will want to face them in the next stage. Real, Barca and Bayern each play with their own distinctive attacking style but the defensive resilience and never-say-die attitude of Mourinho's men could stand them in good stead as we reach the business end of the competition. Atletico are something of an unknown quantity as of yet but they will be very hard to beat.

Real, though more of a possession team this season under Carlo Ancelotti, are still devastating on the counter attack with the pace of Ronaldo and Gareth Bale. Karim Benzema's form has also returned to its best and with the likes of Luka Modric and Xabi Alonso in midfield, they are a side capable of barnstorming anyone if they get things right on a given evening. Barca are still a passing machine with a few long(er) ball tweaks and Bayern are something of an all-round juggernaut such are the tactical and positional options available to them. Atletico's main strength is their aggressive pressing which was what helped last season's inspired Borussia Dortmund to reach the final. Pressing, however, can get exhausting over the course of a long season.

Don't write off Chelsea though. Mourinho, and even Chelsea under other managers, have proven time and time again that they deliver their best European performances with their backs against the wall, looking to pick apart pretty, attacking teams by being forceful in the set-piece and defending like demons.

As all names go into the hat for the quarter-finals with no more seeding in the competition's structure, anything can happen and the real drama begins. The winnners of Borussia Dortmund vs. Zenit St. Petersburg and Manchester United vs. Olympiakos have yet to be decided but the two sides that get through there won't stand much of a chance lest there be a huge surprise in store for us.