EXPECT FAVOURITES TO PREVAIL IN TONIGHT'S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DOUBLE HEADER

EXPECT FAVOURITES TO PREVAIL IN TONIGHT'S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DOUBLE HEADER

D. Ray Morton, April 1st 2014.

The smart money this evening would be to back Barcelona and Bayern Munich as they face down Atlético Madrid and Manchester United respectively in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final ties. Barca play at home and will be thrilled at the sight of the visitors' star striker Diego Costa hobbling off at the weekend with a reported groin injury. As of now, there's only a 50/50 chance that he'll play and without him, Diego Simeone's team are not nearly as dangerous. The Argentine manager describes Costa as being as important to his side as Lionel Messi is to los culés. Indeed, Messi is back to his best. His form this calendar year has been astonishing after shaking off hamstring problems that interrupted his form throughout most of 2013. Gerardo Martino is likely to pair him alongside Neymar up front again with Cesc Fabregas operating in behind them. If anything, Barca's trademark 4-3-3 has been abandoned in recent weeks. Martino has preferred to stack the midfield in order to dominate possession, something which they hadn't focused on during the first half of the season.

Fabregas plays at the tip of the diamond in behind Messi and Neymar

Their shape now resembles something of a diamond 4-4-2. The high defensive line remains, which could be tested now that Victor Valdés is out for the season leaving José Manuel Pinto in goal, and Sergi Busquets continues his anchor man role. Xavi, Andrés Iniesta and Fabregas occupy the midfield positions leaving Messi and Neymar ahead to do as they please up front. Pedro and Alexis Sánchez have been left out for some of their recent big games though many fans of the Catalan club believe that one of the two ought to oust the young Brazilian from the starting line-up. Opinion is divided on how effective Neymar has been although the 22 year-old has been steadily racking up assists, winning penalties and chipping in a steady amount of goals this season.

Neymar's season stats from WhoScored.com

In the other fixture, David Moyes' Manchester United may very well be staring down the abyss. Defeat at home to Bayern Munich would end any realistic hope of advancing to the next round and would render the rest of United's season meaningless considering their poor league position well outside the top four. This is Moyes' last hope. He's likely to gamble on Ryan Giggs in the centre again, something which worked a charm against the considerably weaker Olympiakos but with Bastian Schweinsteiger, Toni Kroos (supposed United target) and Mario Götze all set to start for the visitors, it could be a tough night for the aging legs of the 40 year-old Welshman. Bayern's midfield trio work the ball beautifully and Philip Lahm can just as easily slot in should he be required there.

Whatever about Giggs, the key concern for United fans should be how deputy left-back Alexander
Büttner deals with the mazy dribbling skills of flying Dutchman, Arjen Robben. Robben has been fantastic under Pep Guardiola this season, building on last season's late burst of form and really improving as an all-round team player. He is still, of course, very one-footed and a good defence can make him look predictable cutting in from the right but United's defence has been very shaky this season, especially at home. Whether Büttner can cope will go a long way towards decided this first leg. I would predict Guardiola's side to approach the game more cautiously than the thrashing many people expect to be dealt out. The Spanish manager's record away from home against English opposition in the Champions League isn't actually all that formidable.

So some hope for United but what's important tonight is not so much the result but the performance. Pride needs to be restored at Old Trafford and picking up wins against the likes of Aston Villa and West Ham isn't enough to get people back on Moyes' side. With rumours that the club are willing to give the Scot a £200m war chest to spend in the summer, they have to send out some kind of a signal tonight. Realists don't expect to progress but they can at least exit this one particular tournament with their heads held relatively high provided don't perform footballing self-defecation.